As fighting escalates, India to move Ukrainian embassy to Poland

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman were among those who attended the meeting.

In the days following the start of the war on February 24, the majority of Indian diplomats left the Ukrainian capital of Kiev for Lviv, a city located a short distance from the Ukrainian-Polish border. But the Indian embassy in Kyiv remained functional, with a few officials stationed to coordinate with the Ukrainian authorities the evacuation of Indians from the country.

But with Russian attacks moving west into Ukraine – including a early Sunday airstrike on a military airbase near Lviv which killed 35 people – the Indian government has now decided to move its base from there to Poland.

In a statement issued on Sunday, the Foreign Ministry said: “In view of the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Ukraine, including attacks in the west of the country, it has been decided that the Embassy of India in Ukraine will be temporarily transferred to Poland.” The situation will be reassessed in light of developments, he added.

It is learned that the recent incident of an Indian cruise missile accidentally landing in Pakistan was also discussed at the SCC meeting.

Officials who were part of the meeting included National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, Principal Secretary to Prime Minister PK Mishra, Defense Secretary Ajay Kumar and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla .

The Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement that the SCC meeting was aimed at “reviewing India’s security preparedness and the prevailing global scenario in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine”.

The Prime Minister “was briefed on the latest developments and various aspects of India’s security preparedness in the border areas as well as in the maritime and air domain”. This language also indicated that the issue of the accidental landing of the Indian missile in Pakistan was also discussed.

He said Modi was “also briefed on the latest developments in Ukraine, including details of Operation Ganga to evacuate Indian nationals, as well as some citizens of India’s neighboring countries, from Ukraine.” The Prime Minister ordered that “all possible efforts be made to bring back the mortal remains of Naveen Shekharappa, who died in Kharkiv”.

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Shekharappa, a 21-year-old medical student, was killed in the early days of the war after going out to buy supplies, but was caught in the shelling.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, India’s main concern has been to evacuate the more than 22,000 Indian nationals, mostly students, who were stranded in various cities across Ukraine.

However, another concern within the establishment is the supply of weapon systems and spare parts for Indian weapons as a large proportion of them are of Soviet or Russian origin. A week ago, Defense Minister Singh met with the three service chiefs to review the situation, vis-à-vis pending Russian arms imports, delivery and stockpiles of replacement and maintenance of existing weapons of Russian origin.

As defense establishment officials have assured the armed forces have had spare parts for more than six months, with several countries imposing sanctions on Russia, fear is that it will become more difficult for India to ensure a regular supply of spare parts.

From fighter jets, tanks and submarines to air defense systems, frigates and guns, more than 60% of the weapons available to the Indian armed forces are of Russian origin. Many weapons also have Ukrainian components, including missiles and gas turbines for warships.

India has already signed deals worth more than US$12 billion with Russia for the delivery of major weapons in the coming years. In the short term, the Indian and Russian sides have assured that the delivery of four of the five S400 Triumf air defense units that India purchased in 2018 will continue as planned. There might be some delay, but that too is unlikely.

Apart from this, India is awaiting delivery of two Talwar class frigates from Russia, for which Ukraine had supplied the gas turbines. Ukraine was also supposed to supply gas turbines for two other frigates of this type, which will however be built in India.

India is also taking two nuclear ballistic submarines on lease from Russia – Chakra 3 and Chakra 4 – the first of which is expected to arrive in 2025.

All these projects could be jeopardized under the threat of sanctions. Although the United States has been lenient with India in imposing sanctions under its 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), but in the changing global situation, there are fears that the United States United are not so tolerant while India continues to buy sophisticated weapons products from Russia.

As India tries to expand its base for arms purchases, Russia has for decades been India’s largest defense exporter, and India has bought arms from it for over $35 billion. dollars over the past 20 years.

While most members of India’s defense establishment have no doubts about Russia’s ability to deliver the weapons or supply spare parts, how to pay them around global sanctions will be tricky. As the West tries to isolate Russia, cutting it off from the global SWIFT system, and most Western banks are closing their operations in Russia, the Reserve Bank of India has asked Indian banks to explore other avenues to make payments to Russia.

However, officials within the defense establishment argue that it is still too early to say what kinds of problems Indian forces may face in the long term as a result of the conflict and sanctions. But the situation has once again highlighted India’s dependence on Russia for its weapons.