WHEN The last American troops left Kabul on August 30, which meant not only the end of a 20-year campaign in Afghanistan, but also the end of Western dependence on neighboring Pakistan. By this time, the country had been an infuriating partner who had helped NATO with logistics and intelligence even though it offered refuge to Taliban leaders. Now maybe America could wash her hands and go.
America and its allies have many reasons to feel wronged. Pakistan is in perpetual brawl with its neighbor, India, which is gradually becoming a vital regional partner for the West. It maintains close diplomatic and trade relations with China, to which it gives access to the Indian Ocean, via the Karakoram highway and the port of Gwadar. It is home to many Muslim extremists. With a GDP per capita which is only two-thirds that of India and which has been declining in recent years, Pakistan may seem a reasonable country to avoid.
If only. Although Pakistan is no longer so central to America’s plans, it is still a crucial and worrying place. It has a rapidly expanding arsenal of nuclear weapons. These Muslim extremists have been implicated in terrorist attacks all over the world. The country’s ability to complicate China-India relations means it’s too important to ignore.
However, the West must be realistic about what kind of cooperation is and is not possible. Realism begins by recognizing that Pakistan will never do many things that its Western friends would like. Exhortations to the military to stop the staging policy will fall on deaf ears, even though Pakistan would be better off if it did. Trying to induce Pakistan to separate from China is also hopeless. The generals are too eager to have an ally against India, too eager for Chinese investment and too aware of the West’s reluctance to put all their eggs in one basket. Doing anything that looks like siding with America against other Muslims is also a tough sell. Pakistani rulers see themselves as natural leaders of the Islamic world and are reluctant to anger their more doctrinal citizens.
Nevertheless, despite all its problems, Pakistan is in a position to offer something to the West. Its politics have become calmer since the military stopped trying to rule the country directly and instead handed the task over to a docile politician, Imran Khan. The Islamist terrorists who made the place look like a nascent Afghanistan a few years ago have been widely suppressed. What’s more, although Pakistan is friends with China, it also craves Western attention. The elite spoke English, sent their children to American and European universities, and spent their vacations in London and Paris.
And Pakistan has something to gain. Even more than America, it benefits from tempering Taliban fanaticism, maintaining the stability of Afghanistan and preventing the spread of extremism. The Pakistani version of the Taliban has killed far more Pakistanis than the Afghan Taliban have killed Americans. Pakistani leaders would also like more economic aid, ideally on more favorable terms than the stone loans that have accompanied some Chinese investments. No doubt they will give in to the temptation to pit China and the West against each other. But it’s better than becoming a Chinese client state.
The ultimate price would be some sort of relaxation between Pakistan and India. It won’t come easily, or quickly. Politicians and soldiers from both countries find taunts against the other lot too helpful to give up lightly. But Pakistanis know they cannot compete with India in the long run. And after the border scuffles in the Himalayas, Indians are starting to understand that deterring China is far more important than bickering with Pakistan. It is certainly possible to make the region more secure and to build a stronger network of alliances, if the West is prepared to remain sufficiently engaged and to plan for the long term.
Dial D for diplomacy
Although its Taliban allies have won in Afghanistan, Pakistan is in a difficult position in a dangerous neighborhood. Generals know the West blows hot and cold, but their narrow self-interest leaves room for cooperation. A little joy would be a good start. Joe Biden, the US President, hosted two summits with Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, one in person and the other via video link. He has yet to deign to call Mr. Khan, let alone invite him to the White House. Now that America has left Afghanistan, a little courtesy makes sense. ■
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the title “An Enemy of All Times”
