A woman wearing a mask as a precaution against Covid-19 stands in a crowded area near the India Gate in New Delhi on March 19, 2021, as coronavirus cases continue to rise across the ‘India.
Money Sharma | AFP | Getty Images
India’s Covid-19 cases hit daily highs in April, and experts warn the worsening health crisis in the country could undermine efforts to end the global pandemic.
The South Asian country – home to around 1.4 billion people or 18% of the world’s population – accounted for 46% of new Covid cases globally in the past week, the Organization said on Wednesday. world health. One in four deaths in the past week have come from India, the United Nations health agency said.
India has reported more than 300,000 new cases a day over the past two weeks and overtook Brazil in April to become the second most infected country in the world. Cumulatively, coronavirus infections in India have reached an estimated 20.67 million with more than 226,000 deaths, according to data from the Ministry of Health on Wednesday. However, several studies on data from India found that the cases were likely seriously underreported.
There is already signs that India’s outbreak is spreading to other countries. Its neighbors, Nepal and Sri Lanka, have also reported an increase in infections, while other regional economies, including Hong Kong and Singapore, have seen cases of Covid imported from India.
Here’s how India’s coronavirus crisis could escalate into a larger global problem.
Potential new variants of Covid
Prolonged large-scale outbreaks in any country could increase the possibility of new variants of Covid-19, health experts have warned. Some of the variants could escape immune responses triggered by vaccines and previous infections, they said.
“Here’s the bottom line: we know that when there are big epidemics, variations occur. And so far our vaccines are holding up, we are seeing some breakthrough infections but not many, â€Dr Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University. School of Public Health, “The News with Shepard Smith” told CNBC.
“But India is a big country and if there are big epidemics there of course we are all going to worry about more variants which will be bad for Indians and of course it will spread around the world “, he added.
India first detected the B.1.617 variant – also dubbed the “double mutant” – in October last year. The variant has since been reported in at least 17 countries, including the US, UK and Singapore.
WHO has classified B.1.617 as a variant of interest, suggesting that the mutated strain may be more contagious, deadly, and more resistant to current vaccines and treatments. The organization said more studies are needed to understand the significance of the variant.
Global vaccine supply under threat
India is a major vaccine maker, but the health crisis in its country has led authorities to halt exports of Covid-19 vaccines as the country prioritizes its domestic needs.
The Serum Institute of India (SII) – the country’s main producer – has the rights to produce the Covid vaccine co-developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. Part of its production is planned for Covax, the global initiative to provide poor countries with Covid vaccines.
Developing countries are lagging behind advanced countries in securing vaccine supplies, what WHO has described as a “shocking imbalance” in distribution.
A delay in vaccine exports from India could therefore make low-income countries vulnerable to further outbreaks of the coronavirus.
Threat to the global economy
India is the world’s sixth-largest economy and one of the main contributors to global growth.
Some economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for India. But they remained optimistic about the economic outlook for the year, as restrictions to curb the spread of the virus were more targeted than last year’s strict nationwide lockdown.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund said it expected India’s economy to grow 12.5 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2022, after contracting 8 percent over the past month. the previous exercise.
Yet the resurgence of the epidemic in India has led several countries to tighten travel restrictions – and that’s bad news for airlines, airports and other businesses that depend on the travel industry. said Uma Kambhampati, professor of economics at the University of Reading in the UK
Meanwhile, the US Chamber of Commerce has warned that the health crisis in India could cause the US economy to slow down, Reuters reported. Indeed, many American companies hire millions of Indian workers to manage their back office operations, according to the report.
“In view of all these problems and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, it has become imperative for the world to act quickly to help India – whether that aid is requested or not,” Kambhampati said in a report published on The Conversation, a not-for-profit website featuring commentary from academics and researchers.
Correction: This story has been updated to accurately reflect that the World Health Organization said India accounted for 46% of new Covid cases globally over the past week. Due to an editing error, an earlier version of the story distorted the time limit.
