As the second wave ebbs, local authorities are now focusing on meeting two quantitative conditions set by the center as a benchmark for the districts in order to ease restrictions. This is a test positivity rate (TPR) – tests positive for covid as a percentage of the total number of tests – less than 5% and vaccination of 70% of the vulnerable population. Government data on TPR shows that while the number of districts meeting the 5% standard is gradually increasing, two-fifths of the districts are still above it. This suggests that a major unlock will take time and be gradual. Of those 286 districts, 157 have registered more than 1,000 cases in each of the past two weeks.
While the weekly number of new cases is declining in the majority of these 157 districts, the 7-day moving average of the TPR is still above 5% in 138 of them. These districts make up about one-fifth of all districts and are home to about one-third of the Indian population. In addition, among these 138 districts, 101 districts had a TPR above 10% and 17 districts had a TPR above 20%. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Odisha have the most districts with a TPR above 5%.
In Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, all districts recorded a drop in new weekly cases. In all districts of the country, Jaipur saw the biggest drop in new weekly cases, but its TPR remains at 8.6%, after dropping 13.3% the week before. Chennai’s TPR rose from a peak of 30% to 5.5% last week and Bengaluru’s from 35% to 5.75%.
Fewer deaths
A decrease in deaths from covid-19, typically, results in a decrease in new cases. For the second week in a row, the number of reported deaths declined. The drop was 23% more than two weeks ago. There are still pockets of concern. For example, the number of districts reporting fewer deaths fell from 453 last week to 409 this week. Likewise, although the total number of cases and deaths in Maharashtra has declined over the past four weeks, 14 of its 35 districts have reported more deaths this week, including Nagpur and Pune.
Another example is Odisha, who continues to see an increase in deaths since the start of the second wave in early April. In Odisha, 15 of its 30 districts have seen an increase in deaths over the past week, including Cuttack and Mayurbhanj.
Earlier this week, Bihar added 3,951 deaths from covid-19, calling them “additional deaths after verification.” This increased his total number of deaths from covid-19 by 72%
Vaccine gains
Even though fewer new cases are being recorded, the pace of covid-19 vaccination in India, although slow, is accelerating. After six weeks of decline, it has recorded an increase for two consecutive weeks now. India received an average of 3.1 million doses per day last week. The increase is also larger. In the past week, 23 of 35 states and Union Territories have experienced a weekly increase in doses administered, up from 15 the previous week.
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Assam and Haryana were among the states where the weekly vaccination rate dropped. Given the centre’s unlocking guideline of 70% vaccination among the population over 60 and those with co-morbidities, a drop in vaccination has greater implications for a Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh, which is are in the lower half of immunization coverage. Tamil Nadu administered only 131 doses per 1000 inhabitants and Andhra Pradesh 208 doses. In comparison, Himachal leads the way with 343 doses per 1,000 population.
Central state
In a U-turn, the central government returned this week to centralized vaccine supply. It has also placed orders with Indian manufacturers to purchase an additional 440 million doses. Over the past week, India has seen a weekly growth of 8.3% in vaccine doses administered. In the previous two weeks, he managed 7.4% and 5%, according to the data portal Our World in Data. In terms of growth, Japan leads this group.
China continues to make significant progress on covid-19 vaccinations, increasing its dose count by 15% over the past week. It administered 36% of all vaccine doses worldwide, more than North America and Europe combined. India remains in third position on this metric (10.5%), behind the United States and China.
In order to match the growth of China and Japan, India needs more vaccines. The parts for this are only being put in place now.
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