On May 26, India became just the third country to administer 200 million doses of the covid-19 vaccine. But this number hides more than it reveals. As a share of its population, India has been able to immunize fewer people than other populous developing countries such as China, Brazil and Mexico.
On April 1, when India opened up vaccination to the public on a graduated basis, India’s vaccination figures were on par with its peers. At the time, India administered 5 doses per 100 inhabitants. Brazil, China, Russia and Mexico scored between 6.7 and 9.7.
During the 56-day period between April 1 and May 26, India’s per capita coverage increased to 14. During the same period, China’s per capita immunization coverage increased to 38 and that of Brazil at 30. India’s vaccination rate has suffered even as other countries have stepped up their vaccination efforts.
Even Japan, which lagged behind in immunization a few weeks ago, was able to speed up immunization. The same goes for the Philippines, which experienced a peak in infections around the same time as India. These countries have already ordered enough vaccines to provide at least one dose to every citizen. India is far behind on this front.
Among the 10 most populous countries in the world, India is among the three countries that have seen a drop in vaccination rates in the past week. The other two countries on this list are the United States and Bangladesh. The United States has already vaccinated a majority of its citizens and has more than enough stocks. Bangladesh’s predicament is similar to that of India: limited vaccination coverage amid limited vaccine supplies.
States of despair
As many as 22 of 36 states and union territories saw the average daily injections given in the past week lower than their average over the 56-day period since April 1. Kerala experienced the largest decline (-66%), followed by Telangana (-64%). Even among the 14 that saw their pace pick up, states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar were only able to cover a tiny fraction of their population.
Uttar Pradesh (72 doses per 1000), Bihar (81), Tamil Nadu (102), Jharkhand (105) and Assam (111) lag behind other states in terms of cumulative doses per capita .
The current top five in terms of cumulative doses per capita were all among the leaders, even in early April. These are Himachal Pradesh (320 doses per 1,000 inhabitants on May 27), Delhi (279), Uttarakhand (252), Gujarat (252) and Kerala (246).
Slowing down the spread
The silver lining in Covid history is the drop in new cases amid widespread lockdowns. The daily average of new cases fell to around 228,000 last week, from 295,000 the week before. The drop is vast. Of the 303 districts with more than 1,000 new cases this week, 213 saw a weekly decline. There were 11 districts in 6 states where new cases exceeded 20,000. Three weeks ago, this was the case for 18 districts in 9 states.
Still, there are pockets of concern. One is Tamil Nadu, where all districts recorded more than 1,000 new cases last week. Amid the nationwide drop last week, 27 of its 32 districts reported an increase in new cases, including double-digit growth in 19. Of the 20 districts with the highest number of new cases, only three have faced higher cases than Tamil Nadu, Mysore in Karnataka and Satara in Maharashtra.
Death factor
Even though new infections have declined, the number of reported deaths continues to rise in several states. Among the top 10 states by number of cases, the southern states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala recorded more deaths in the past week. Even Maharashtra, which was seeing a decrease, showed an increase. There is usually some time lag between the peak of infections and the peak of deaths. In the current wave, the lag also reflects delays in reporting and reconciliation efforts by the authorities.
Maharashtra reported the highest number of covid-19 deaths in the past week (7,046, up 12%), followed by Karnataka (3,623, up 23%). Kerala and Odisha saw the highest weekly increases, 72% and 41% respectively. In Kerala, Kottayam reported 91 deaths this week, up from 8 deaths. Palakkad has reported 340 deaths in the past month, including 182 in the past week. Even if new cases drop, the control of deaths will greatly influence when and how states lift lockdowns.
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