Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just entered the third year of his second term, and it will be interesting to look into the early days of Modi 2.0 before tackling the challenges. He started his second inning as a race-hungry batsman eager to score a big score, so it was raining six and four in every corner of the field. The Modi government divided Jammu and Kashmir into two parts and repealed Article 370. A new Union territory called Ladakh has emerged on the map of India and the full state status of J&K is become a thing of the past. The practice of triple talaq has also been declared illegal.
In addition, Modi pledged to turn India into a $ 5 trillion economy by 2024. Public sector bank NPAs were a major obstacle, so it was decided to merge 19 banks to form four big banks. Despite unprecedented opposition from farmers, crop purchasing laws were changed, and in the annual budget presented in February, the path to privatization of government enterprises was cleared. It was clarified that Modi is synonymous with economic reforms.
While everything seemed so fluid and was going as planned, the coronavirus suddenly arrived from China; after wreaking havoc there, he was looking at India with a grimace. If we assess the three biggest challenges in Modi’s third year, as of today the spread of the pandemic appears to be the greatest. So far in India officially 325,972 people have died. The opposition and some experts say the death toll could be much higher. Amidst these frightening numbers, experts seem to warn that a third wave is yet to come. They also said that if 70-80% of India’s population did not get immunized immediately, such waves would continue. The government claims everyone will be vaccinated by December, but so far the arrangements have proven inadequate. A vaccination campaign for citizens over 18 has already been announced, but hundreds of vaccination centers are closed. No one has a clear answer as to when they will be vaccinated. All state governments have raised their voices against it. The central government, they say, has ignored the threat of a pandemic for political gain.
A pandemic goes away sooner or later, but its wounds run deep and lasting. According to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the rural unemployment rate reached 13.5% during the week of May 23. Watch his pace; on May 9, that figure was 7.29%. The unemployment rate was 17.4% in cities and the national unemployment rate hit a new high of 14.7%. If the lockdowns don’t end quickly, the situation can get even more frightening.
True, Modi will also have to deal with the deteriorating financial situation while saving lives. This is where his second biggest problem begins. In 2022, elections will be held in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa and Manipur. The basic work has already started. Despite the victories in Assam and Pondicherry, the defeat in West Bengal has put a question mark on the political capabilities of the BJP. After Modi’s second appointment, the BJP was only able to win four out of 10 state elections. Here, too, the role of the allies was very important. This is why many critics claim that even though there is no alternative to Modi in the Center, where there is a strong party at state level, voters prefer the alternative.
They have another number to support this claim. As of March 2018, the BJP-led NDA ruled 21 states, or 71% of India’s population. In April 2019, it was reduced to 18 states. However, in terms of demographics, today 49% of the population is led by the NDA. The seven states where elections are due next year amid all the disparities are very important to the BJP. Of these, only the Punjab is ruled by Congress and the rest are ruled by the BJP. Maintaining power in these states is going to be the second major challenge for Modi. In Punjab, the BJP fought the elections with the Akalis. This time he has to go it alone. The BJP has lost almost all of its former allies over the past five years.
The third biggest challenge for the Modi government comes across the borders. China is still not deterred by his antics. Will the Prime Minister be able to restrict China this year? Much has been written on this matter before, so I won’t go into detail.
Of course, during Modi’s long reign, he had never faced so many challenges all at once. Whether he is able to overcome them or not, we have to wait and see. But keep in mind that he has been able to overcome all political problems so far. This is the reason why the eighth year of his reign as pradhan sevak will prove to be interesting, both for his fans and for his critics.
Shashi Shekhar is Editor-in-Chief, Hindustan. The opinions expressed are personal.
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