India should now prepare for a third wave of COVID-19

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Health workers stand in the back of an ambulance as they transport patients to a COVID-19 field hospital in Mumbai, India (File)
Image Credit: AP

Do you remember what it was like to sit down to dinner in a crowded restaurant or bar, not worrying about masks? Or send your children to school and receive their friends? Or to travel and explore the world with a sense of adventure and just a valid visa?

Or even being able to meet family and friends without worrying about social distancing? Or go to the office every day, meet colleagues for lunch and coffee? These are the things we took for granted before COVID.

Will life ever return to what was “normal” before COVID? Or has the pandemic created a new normal that we will end up living with for the foreseeable future, maybe even the next few years?

Epidemics, containments and restrictions

As we deal with wave after wave it looks more and more like this last one. None of us imagined, when the pandemic began in early 2020, that a year and a half later, we would still be struggling with epidemics, lockdowns and travel restrictions.

The whole world is grappling with new waves and explosion cases largely fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant. COVID cases rose 500% in the Netherlands last week after the restrictions were completely lifted. The wave forced the prime minister to apologize and reintroduce curbs.

Australia is imposing further closures after new outbreaks as the country’s slow vaccination campaign has come under heavy criticism. The UK is bizarrely preparing to lift all restrictions on July 19, including making masks voluntary.

This despite the increase in COVID cases in recent weeks, although hospitalizations have not been as high, thanks to the country’s vaccination program. But the images of thousands of people without masks at Wimbledon and Wembley recently have raised concerns about what lies ahead. The United States is also seeing an increase thanks to the Delta variant.

Late vaccination program

Meanwhile, India’s immunization program is lagging behind. The government has set an ambitious goal of vaccinating all adults by the end of 2021.

Data released by NDTV shows that to vaccinate 60% of India’s population by the end of December, in order to stop another wave, we need to administer 8.8 million vaccines per day. But last week’s average was just 3.8 million shots per day.

A political blame game and pointing the finger between states and the center doesn’t help. Most countries closed their borders partially or totally after the start of the pandemic. Some like Australia have no plans to reopen their borders until at least mid-2022.

They even made it extremely difficult for their own citizens to return. Other countries like the UK have long lists of countries on the Red, Orange, or Green lists to decide who can travel without quarantine.

India continues to be on the UK’s red list after the horrific COVID wave in April that ravaged the country. Some EU countries have relaxed restrictions on travel from India, but most still do not allow tourists. Neither does the UK. Those who eventually do, may require proof that travelers have been doubly vaccinated.

Either way, while India’s COVID numbers are drastically down from April’s highs, they don’t fall below 35-40,000 cases per day, and the dreaded R-rate, which shows the speed to which the infection is spreading, showed a slight upward tic. This raises fears of a third wave sooner rather than later and it looks like India will not be lifting many other travel restrictions anytime soon.

Crowded mountain resorts

The Home Office has sent a warning to states about the increase in the R number urging them to be as careful as possible. But are people listening? If you see photos of hill stations like Shimla and Mussoorie, a thrill of fear should wash over you.

Massive crowd, no masks. It is a recipe for disaster. Schools and education have been hit hard over the past year and a half, and most children won’t see the inside of a classroom for some time.

Digital learning just isn’t the same and in India, where many lack access to the internet and fancy gadgets, the pandemic has only highlighted the digital divide.

Until we immunize children in large numbers, that won’t change and we haven’t even started this process in India. Another consequence of this crisis is the mental health toll that the pandemic has caused many of us. Loneliness and anxiety have been overwhelmingly triggered by blockages and general concerns about COVID and its impact.

Non-COVID illnesses have not received as much attention and as a result people have not been able to make it to regular chemotherapy sessions or even regular doctor screenings.

How can you even quantify the long term impact of something like this? Like most of the others, I long for a quick return to the “normal” that we used to know. Of course, we’ve made huge strides as well, especially developing life-saving vaccines in record time, but it will take years to vaccinate large populations.

The fight against COVID will be slow and long. In the meantime, hold on to what is precious to you.



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